Tyson Fury vs Oleksander Usyk Fight Prediction

fury vs usyk heavyweight boxing gloves

The Fury vs Usyk fight has been a year in the making (if not longer) and boxing fans around the world are eagerly anticipating the pencilled in May 2024 fight date. There has been growing speculation about who will come out victorious, especially with Fury’s lacklustre performance against Francis Ngannou.

Let’s compare the two boxers and see how I think this fight will play out.

Oleksander Usyk – How Good is He?

Many pundits and boxing fans are quick to point out Tyson Fury’s boxing record when aiming disparaging comments at him. Is that fair? Not really, but I will get to that shortly.

When you look at Usyk’s record, it is quite a lot less impressive than Fury’s – especially at heavyweight, which is what we are concerned about as this is a heavyweight bout.

Usyk has fought a total of 21 fights in his career and for a 36-year-old he has done well not to accumulate too much mileage on the clock. Ordinarily a fighter his age will be approaching the end of their career and have at least 35 fights on their record.

For comparison, Anthony Joshua has 29 fights on his record and is 2 years younger, and Deontay Wilder has 46 fights on his record and is 2 years older. Realistically, Usyk has about 4 years left boxing at a high level, and he might struggle to get to Joshua’s 29 total and almost definitely will not reach Wilder’s 46.

Fury has 35 fights to his name and is a year younger than Usyk. When we look at the calibre of opponent Usyk has faced at heavyweight, he has only faced one world champion, albeit a mentally damaged gun-shy Anthony Joshua. His other opponents are by no means world champion level.

As a result, it is impossible to gauge how good Usyk is. Wins over Chazz Witherspoon, Derek Chisora and Daniel Dubois are hardly enough to warrant a great level of expectation.

usyk the cat
Image Credit: @usykaa

Usyk’s Boxing History

Before Usyk stepped up to heavyweight he had a decorated Cruiserweight career, achieving undisputed world champion status.

The media loves a success story and when Usyk stepped up to heavyweight, the goal of becoming undisputed heavyweight champion was irresistible to tell.

He became unified champion by beating Anthony Joshua and then retained the belts by beating him again – both times conclusively. However, it has always been my opinion the media has put too much stock in Anthony Joshua’s ability and without the ability to pull the trigger on his big punches, he is a shadow of the fighter he used to be.

My opinion is Usyk is a better than average boxer, but he would get unstuck against some of the other boxers in the division – do we really think he would last more than four rounds against Deontay Wilder without getting knocked out cold?

Tyson Fury – The Proverbial Underdog

I can’t remember a big fight Tyson Fury has been involved in where the media and fans were not expecting him to lose. Against Klitschko he was undoubtedly the underdog. For Fury v Wilder 1 again he was the underdog. After the heavy twelfth round knockdown, he went into the Fury v Wilder 2 fight as the underdog. Arguably, he went into Fury v Wilder 3 as the favourite, but still there were many writing off his chances.

Tyson Fury even fought Dillion Whyte of all people with fans and commentators expecting it to be a difficult night for Fury.

Like the great Lennox Lewis before him, Tyson Fury boxes to levels. Unlike Lewis, Fury has thus far been lucky when taking opponents lightly and his chin has stood up where Lewis’ let him down.

Tyson Fury’s Boxing Record

The argument that Fury has not fought anyone of note is getting old and more inaccurate as each year goes by. Yet it still plays like the same broken record as casuals rush to parrot the likes of Eddie Hearn.

Fury has fought two exceptional, world class heavyweight fighters. Deontay Wilder and Vladimir Klitschko were both dominant world champions before they fought Fury. Both possessed right hands that land like a cannonball. In the case of Wilder, he has a resilience about him as well that is unlike most boxers, it is very hard to put him down and keep down.

Fury has also fought his fair share of heavyweight world title contenders over his career.

tyson fury
Image Credit: @tysonfury

How Fury vs Usyk Will Play Out

Under the tutelage of SugarHill Steward, Fury has added the key component to his arsenal that was missing at times during his early career – the powerful knockout punch.

This will prove difficult for Usyk to contend with for several reasons. First, Usyk is a slick southpaw boxer who will want to get in close and score points which opens him up to Fury clinching and putting his immense weight on him and being caught with a heavy punch.

If Usyk decides to play it safe and try and maintain the distance, Fury has enormous reach, allowing him to land his sharp jab at will and making it difficult for the shorter Usyk to get into range and safely out again to score his own points.

Finally, Fury has not shown a weakness. Yes, he can get hit and he can get dropped. But he has the heart to get up and surprisingly, his legs always seem to be stable after heavy falls. The only time I have seen Fury fully wobbled was in the Fury vs Wilder 3 fight where he went down a second time because he still hadn’t gained equilibrium.

Usyk by no stretch of the imagination hits as hard as Wilder, Ngannou or most other opponents Fury has fought recently. It will take something truly miraculous to occur for Usyk to score a KO. That leaves points, but as mentioned above, if Usyk is going for a points win, it is a huge gamble and will be a very difficult night for him.

Usyk on the other hand is very susceptible to body shots. You can guarantee that Fury will be working in camp on setting up that body shot in the same way he practiced the uppercut that took Whyte out in spectacular fashion.

My Prediction for Fury vs Usyk

Fury should beat Usyk comfortably. Throughout the Fury vs Usyk fight he will be looking to set up the body shot for the KO; however, he has no need to be overly concerned in finding it.

He can easily outpoint Usyk by boxing comfortably at range or wear Usyk down with clinching and gritty inside boxing if Usyk gets brave enough to close the distance.

Usyk hasn’t fought anyone near Fury’s size or skill level, and it is going to be a very hard night for him. His only advantage is he will probably move a little quicker and he is a southpaw which makes hitting him a little more difficult – but don’t be fooled into thinking Fury can’t counter speed or southpaws, once he gets into the groove of how Usyk is approaching the fight it is game over for Usyk.

Jon Logan

Jon Logan is an editorial consultant and author that loves living life without boundaries.

Over the past 5 years, his content at Immortal Wordsmith has helped thousands of readers gain new perspectives and discover interesting stories.

Jon holds several professional qualifications and is financially qualified in the UK. He left the humdrum world of financial advice to pursue a career in writing – his lifelong passion. He has partnered with local and global brands to help them grow their businesses and audiences through insightful and innovative content strategy.

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